NASA increased the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth to 1 in 32, or 3.1%, on Tuesday, but they're now back down to 1 in 67, or 1.5%.

NASA increased the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth to 1 in 32, or 3.1%, on Tuesday, but they’re now back down to 1 in 67, or 1.5%.

  • artificialfish@programming.devEnglish
    0·
    3 days ago

    I guess i didn’t realize the practicalities of guessing an objects mass location and momentum. I thought we knew most of the stuff in our solar system to pinpoint accuracy already. You’d think in-solar-system we’d have some kind of magic tech able to pinpoint stuff we can see in a telescope (radio, laser, idk). A telescope in mars orbit vs a telescope in solar orbit vs a telescope in earth orbit could get you position and velocity very accurately id think.

    • threelonmusketeers@sh.itjust.worksEnglish
      0·
      2 days ago

      It’s a shame you’re being downvoted for genuine questions.

      I thought we knew most of the stuff in our solar system to pinpoint accuracy already.

      We know where all the big rocks are. Those smaller than a few hundred meters are much harder to spot.

      A telescope in mars orbit vs a telescope in solar orbit vs a telescope in earth orbit could get you position and velocity very accurately id think.

      It definitely could, but we don’t really have astrometry telescopes beyond earth orbit. I can’t wait until launch costs get low enough for us to yeet Hubble-class or Arecibo-class telescopes all over the solar system, and maybe even do interferometry between them.